IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Francisco
West Coast
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.2	#137
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.0	#257
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.1	#172

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.4	#100

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.5%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.6%	10.8%	4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	3.7%	6.6%	1.9%
Average Seed	10.7	10.3	11.3

.500 or above	60.7%	76.2%	51.0%
.500 or above in Conference	52.3%	62.4%	45.9%
Conference Champion	2.1%	3.2%	1.4%
Last Place in Conference	6.5%	3.9%	8.2%

First Four	1.7%	2.8%	1.0%
First Round	5.7%	9.3%	3.5%
Second Round	1.8%	3.3%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	0.9%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Away) - 38.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.2 - 2.4	0.2 - 2.4
Quad 1b	0.4 - 1.5	0.6 - 3.9
Quad 2	1.3 - 2.8	1.9 - 6.7
Quad 3	4.5 - 4.2	6.4 - 10.9
Quad 4	9.3 - 2.4	15.7 - 13.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	131	@ UC Davis	L	66-67	38%
Nov 10, 2018	327	Maine	W	76-63	93%
Nov 18, 2018	225	LIU Brooklyn	W	76-70	79%
Nov 21, 2018	77	Harvard	L	64-68	45%
Nov 24, 2018	276	Dartmouth	W	71-63	84%
Nov 30, 2018	105	Stephen F. Austin	L	69-71	44%
Dec 01, 2018	65	Buffalo	L	72-78	30%
Dec 05, 2018	198	@ California	W	70-66	55%
Dec 13, 2018	174	Eastern Washington	W	70-67	69%
Dec 16, 2018	143	Cal St. Fullerton	W	70-69	63%
Dec 19, 2018	326	Northern Arizona	W	74-61	91%
Dec 22, 2018	108	Stanford	L	69-71	55%
Dec 29, 2018	177	@ UC Santa Barbara	W	70-67	50%
Jan 03, 2019	59	St. Mary's	L	63-70	39%
Jan 05, 2019	234	@ Pepperdine	W	73-67	62%
Jan 12, 2019	5	Gonzaga	L	64-80	14%
Jan 17, 2019	168	@ Pacific	W	69-67	49%
Jan 19, 2019	63	BYU	L	65-71	40%
Jan 24, 2019	241	Portland	W	71-64	79%
Jan 26, 2019	121	@ San Diego	L	66-67	37%
Feb 02, 2019	59	@ St. Mary's	L	63-70	21%
Feb 07, 2019	5	@ Gonzaga	L	64-80	6%
Feb 09, 2019	217	Santa Clara	W	68-62	76%
Feb 14, 2019	234	Pepperdine	W	73-67	78%
Feb 16, 2019	241	@ Portland	W	71-64	61%
Feb 21, 2019	63	@ BYU	L	65-71	23%
Feb 23, 2019	217	@ Santa Clara	W	68-62	58%
Feb 28, 2019	121	San Diego	L	66-67	57%
Mar 02, 2019	165	Loyola Marymount	W	71-69	68%
Projected Record						15.7 - 13.3	7.7 - 8.3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected West Coast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.1		2.1	1st
2nd									0.0	0.1	1.1	2.6	2.8	1.8	0.2				8.7	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.4	2.8	5.2	4.0	1.2	0.0					13.6	3rd
4th							0.0	0.6	3.8	6.7	3.6	0.6	0.0						15.3	4th
5th						0.0	0.6	4.5	7.0	3.2	0.4	0.0							15.7	5th
6th						0.4	4.5	7.0	2.4	0.1									14.5	6th
7th				0.0	0.4	3.7	5.4	1.8	0.1										11.4	7th
8th			0.0	0.5	2.7	4.0	1.4	0.1											8.8	8th
9th		0.0	0.4	1.9	2.8	1.1	0.1												6.3	9th
10th	0.2	0.5	1.3	1.3	0.4	0.0													3.7	10th

Total	0.2	0.5	1.8	3.7	6.2	9.3	12.1	14.1	13.6	12.9	10.4	7.3	4.4	2.6	0.8	0.3	0.1			Total

West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
15-1	100.0%	0.3		0.2	0.0
14-2	71.1%	0.6		0.4	0.2	0.0
13-3	30.1%	0.8		0.4	0.3	0.1
12-4	8.4%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-5	1.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	2.1%	2.1		1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.1%		100.0%	47.5%	52.5%	4.5			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0								100.0%
15-1	0.3%		99.0%	23.6%	75.4%	5.9			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		98.7%
14-2	0.8%		73.4%	28.3%	45.1%	8.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.2		62.9%
13-3	2.6%		56.7%	13.4%	43.3%	9.5					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0				1.1		50.0%
12-4	4.4%		31.1%	10.5%	20.6%	10.7						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.0				3.1		23.0%
11-5	7.3%		15.9%	7.2%	8.7%	11.6									0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0		6.2		9.4%
10-6	10.4%		8.3%	5.5%	2.8%	12.2										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		9.5		3.0%
9-7	12.9%		3.2%	2.6%	0.6%	12.6										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	12.5		0.6%
8-8	13.6%		1.2%	1.2%	0.0%	14.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	13.4		0.0%
7-9	14.1%		1.1%	1.1%	0.0%	14.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	13.9		0.0%
6-10	12.1%		0.9%	0.9%		14.6														0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	11.9
5-11	9.3%		0.1%	0.1%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	9.3
4-12	6.2%		0.2%	0.2%		13.2														0.0			0.0	6.2
3-13	3.7%		0.0%	0.0%		15.7																0.0	0.0	3.6
2-14	1.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.8
1-15	0.5%																							0.5
0-16	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		6.6%	3.0%	3.6%	10.7			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.5	1.4	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.1	93.4		3.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%